2026 Real Estate Forecast: New Mortgage Rules, 50-Year Loans, and Florida Tax Breaks

Updated: November 2025

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2026 Housing Market Snapshot

The 2026 housing market is expected to stabilize as inventory rises, prices level off, and new lending rules expand access for millions of buyers. Major changes include:

• Fannie Mae removing the 620 minimum credit score

• Proposed mortgage portability to unlock low-rate homeowners

• Introduction of 50-year mortgage terms

• Florida’s push for new property tax advantages

These changes are reshaping affordability, mobility, and nationwide housing demand. Whether you plan to buy, sell, invest, or launch a real estate career, understanding these shifts will help you move with confidence.

2026 Housing Market Changes at a Glance

Florida Real Estate Outlook for 2026

Florida continues to outperform national housing trends thanks to strong population growth, consistent job creation, business-friendly policies, and nationwide interest from relocating buyers.

Key regional highlights

• Tampa Bay: Steady buyer demand with strong new construction growth.

• Orlando: Expanding workforce fueling both resale and new-build activity.

• Jacksonville: Rapid population growth and increased affordability appeal.

• Miami & South Florida: High-income migration continues driving price stability.

• Southwest Florida: Rebuilding momentum, rising inventory, and strong investor interest.

With proposed tax reforms plus evolving mortgage qualifications, Florida remains one of the most attractive real estate markets going into 2026.

1. Fannie Mae Removes the 620 Minimum Credit Score

This major change went into effect November 2025. Buyers who previously could not qualify for conventional loans due to limited credit now have access to financing through Desktop Underwriter (DU).

What This Means

• More entry-level and first-time buyers qualify

• Fairer access for non-traditional credit profiles

• Stronger affordability for lower-income households

Market Impact

• Higher demand for affordable homes

• Increased competition stabilizing prices

• Broader homeownership opportunities across the U.S.

2. Mortgage Portability: Solving the Locked-In Rate Problem

Mortgage portability would allow homeowners to transfer their existing low interest rate to a new property. With almost 70% of homeowners sitting on rates below 4%, this has become a top policy focus for 2026.

Why It Matters

• Homeowners can move without doubling their payment

• Sellers stuck in low-rate mortgages regain mobility

Market Impact

• A significant rise in inventory

• Healthier, more balanced markets

• Faster transaction volume across the country

3. 50-Year Mortgages: Expanding Buyer Qualification

The possibility of 50-year mortgages is one of the biggest topics of 2026. Extending the loan term reduces monthly payments and improves debt-to-income ratios.

Why It Matters

• Lower payments increase affordability

• Higher borrowing power for stretched buyers

Market Impact

• More qualified buyers entering the market

• Strengthened demand for entry-level and new construction homes

4. Florida Property Tax Reform: A Powerful Relocation Magnet

Florida is considering new tax reforms aimed at reducing burdens on homeowners and investors. These potential changes position the state as an even stronger alternative to high-tax markets.

Why It Matters

• Lower taxes support long-term affordability

• Florida remains competitive for businesses and remote workers

Market Impact

• Increased out-of-state migration

• Rising demand across Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, and Miami

• Strong investment opportunities statewide

5. Combined Effect: What the 2026 Market Means for Buyers, Sellers, and Agents

These four shifts create a powerful 2026 environment:

More Buyers

Easier qualification through credit rule changes and extended mortgage terms.

More Mobility

Mortgage portability encourages homeowners to move again.

More Florida Migration

Tax reform proposals make Florida even more appealing.

More Real Estate Opportunity

Agents, investors, and new licensees benefit from increased activity and demand.

6. Risks to Watch in 2026

A balanced forecast helps build credibility and authority. Keep an eye on:

• Rate volatility if inflation resurges

• Construction delays affecting new supply

• Slow policy adoption at federal or state levels

• Increased long-term interest accumulation on 50-year terms

These aren’t forecast breakers — but they’re realistic factors to monitor.

7. What This Means for You

For Buyers

More loan options, more listings, and better affordability.

For Sellers

A larger pool of qualified buyers supports strong pricing.

For Investors

Florida’s tax incentives and population trends create long-term opportunity.

For Real Estate Professionals

2026 may be the best year in a decade to get licensed, join a brokerage, or grow your business.

Start Ahead of the 2026 Real Estate Market

If you want to earn your Florida real estate license or advance your skills, TSRE offers you:

• Florida Real Estate License Courses

• Live and On-Demand Online Courses

• Exam Prep Tools

• TSRE+ Membership for On-Demand Training

• Continuing Education and Post-Licensing

Get started today at TSRE.us and be ready for the opportunities 2026 brings.

Frequently Asked Questions About the 2026 Housing Market

Will mortgage rates drop in 2026?
Rates may stabilize with mild downward pressure depending on inflation and Federal Reserve policy.

What is mortgage portability?
It allows homeowners to transfer their current mortgage rate to a new property, helping unlock inventory tied to low-rate loans.

Are 50-year mortgages available yet?
Several lenders have piloted extended terms. Widespread adoption depends on federal guidelines.

How will Florida’s tax reform affect buyers?
Lower taxes enhance affordability and continue attracting out-of-state buyers.

Is 2026 a good time to buy a home?
Yes. Expanded qualification, more listings, and more flexible financing mean strong buyer opportunity.

About the Author

Jon Carissimo is a Florida real estate instructor and co-founder of the Tampa School of Real Estate. Since 2007, TSRE has helped over 70,000 students across more than 40 countries earn their license, pass their exam, and launch their real estate careers. Jon hosts weekly “State of Real Estate” episodes and teaches real estate principles, strategy, and professional development.